Nvidia Stock Faces a Dual Threat: Senate Scrutiny and a Pivotal Support Line

Nvidia shares managed a modest bounce on Monday, but the relief looks fragile. The stock climbed 2.45 percent to €182.44, recovering from a bruising week that saw it shed 5.41 percent. Yet the recovery does little to mask the twin pressures weighing on the AI darling: a looming Senate hearing on China export policy and a technical support test that could determine whether the current pullback deepens into something more serious.

The bounce narrowed the gap to the 52-week high of €202.50, set on May 14, to 9.91 percent. That is an improvement from the 12 percent deficit recorded at Friday’s close of €178.08, but the stock remains well below the peak and has lost much of its recent momentum.

Political Headwinds Meet Macro Reality

The selloff that pushed Nvidia into correction territory originated from two distinct sources. First, a stronger-than-expected US jobs report for May dampened hopes of near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts, hitting richly valued tech stocks hard. Second, heightened political scrutiny entered the picture. Senator Elizabeth Warren has called CEO Jensen Huang to testify before the Senate Banking Committee on June 11 regarding Nvidia’s China business and compliance with US export controls. For a company whose AI chips sit at the center of the US-China technology conflict, that is far from a routine scheduling note.

The market has taken notice. Over the past ten trading sessions, Nvidia has closed lower on seven occasions. On its worst day last week, trading volume surged by 47 million shares above the average—a pattern technical analysts often interpret as a warning sign of distribution.

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Moving Averages Provide a Safety Net, for Now

Despite the pullback, Nvidia remains above all three key moving averages—a constructive sign that tempers the short-term bearishness. The 50-day moving average sits at €174.96, giving the stock a buffer of roughly 4.3 percent. The 100-day and 200-day averages trail further below at €165.94 and €161.60, respectively, leaving a cushion of 12.9 percent to the long-term trend line.

The 50-day line is now the critical threshold. A sustained break below €174.96 would darken the chart considerably, shifting the focus to the €165 area around the 100-day average. The 52-week low of €122.90 remains a distant memory, but the distance from that floor—48.45 percent above the current price—underscores how much upward cushion the stock still enjoys.

The relative strength index reflects the cooling momentum. The 14-day RSI stood at 49.3 on Monday, having risen from 45.3 at Friday’s close. That is dead in neutral territory—far from the oversold level of 30 and equally distant from the overbought zone above 70. Rather than signaling a clear selloff, the indicator suggests a healthy reset after the recent turmoil.

Volatility Without Direction

The stock’s wild swings of recent weeks are encapsulated by the annualized 30-day volatility reading of 43.47 percent, while the one-month price return is essentially flat at minus 0.09 percent. High volatility, low net movement—a classic consolidation pattern.

Meanwhile, the fundamental picture offers some reassurance. At Computex last week, Nvidia unveiled a new AI chip platform for PCs and laptops, and CEO Huang stressed that the company has sufficient CPU and GPU capacity to support robust growth, even as demand continues to outstrip supply. That narrative supports the long-term bullish thesis but has done little to jolt the stock out of its narrow trading range.

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Analysts Stay Bullish, but the Hearing Looms

Wall Street remains firmly in Nvidia’s corner. The analyst consensus price target stands at €258.31, based on evaluations from 38 analysts, the vast majority of whom rate the stock a strong buy. That implies upside of roughly 42 percent from Monday’s level. Yet such forecasts will remain academic until the shares can retake the €202.50 record high and reclaim their uptrend.

The next major catalyst arrives on June 11, when Huang faces the Senate committee. Any signal on China export policy—whether a tightening, an exemption, or unchanged guidance—could break the stock out of its current range. Until then, Nvidia is stuck in a technical stalemate: close enough to its highs to dream, but tethered to a support line that leaves no room for error.

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