Ondas Holdings: Record Backlog and Raised Forecast Collide With a Swarm of Short Sellers

Ondas Holdings has transformed itself from a niche industrial wireless provider into a direct contractor for the U.S. military, and the market is pricing in that radical makeover. The company now forecasts 2026 revenue of 390 million dollars, up sharply from earlier guidance, and its order backlog has swelled to a record 457 million dollars. Yet behind the headline numbers, a very different story is playing out: short interest has ballooned to over 164 million shares, representing roughly 34 percent of the free float, while insiders have been consistently selling their own stock.

Acquisitions Fuel the Growth Engine

The foundation for Ondas’s surge was laid earlier this year with two bolt-on acquisitions. The takeover of Mistral, a U.S. defense contractor, brought in existing contracts worth more than 264 million dollars overnight. Shortly after, Ondas folded in World View Enterprises, expanding its capabilities from ground-based robotics to stratospheric reconnaissance. Together, the deals have turned Ondas into a multi-domain supplier for the Pentagon.

A key pillar of the expanding order book is a military engineering project at the subsidiary INDO Earth Moving, which recently secured its first multi-million-dollar order. Deliveries of heavy engineering vehicles are scheduled to begin before the end of the year. Ondas is also tapping into the fast-growing market for autonomous warfare. Its "Swarmer" platform, an AI-driven system that controls drone swarms in high-intensity combat, has seen rising demand. Another initiative, "VisionWave," connects solar-powered aircraft for persistent aerial surveillance, currently deployed in large-scale clearing operations and border security missions.

Soaring Revenue but Persistent Shadow

The financial results reflect the momentum. Ondas reported first-quarter revenue of 50.1 million dollars, a tenfold jump from a year earlier. Gross margin improved to 49 percent. The stock has responded accordingly: it recently changed hands at 9.28 euros, up from a close of 9.06 euros the previous Friday, posting a weekly gain of nearly 16 percent. Over the past twelve months, the share price has surged more than 970 percent.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Ondas Holdings?

But the same filing that accompanied the revenue bonanza also revealed that Ondas registered nearly 3.34 million shares for resale on May 15, 2026. These shares stem from the World View acquisition and will be sold by former shareholders, not the company itself. A six-month lock-up restricts daily sales: each holder may sell no more than five percent of the prior day’s trading volume. That safeguard prevents a sudden dump, but the mere overhang has already attracted short sellers in droves.

Insider Selling Clouds the Picture

While retail and institutional investors have piled into the stock, company insiders have headed the other way. Over the past six months, management and directors have sold shares 21 times and not bought a single one. CEO Eric Brock alone disposed of 475,000 shares for approximately 4.6 million dollars. Other major shareholders have also trimmed their stakes significantly.

This pattern gives ammunition to the bears. The short interest has multiplied over the past year, with over 164 million shares now shorted against a float that is not much larger. The betting against Ondas is one of the most concentrated in the small-cap space.

Ondas Holdings at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.

Analysts Hold Their Ground

Despite the bearish pressure, five analysts currently rate the stock a buy, with a median price target of 18.50 dollars. Northland Securities reiterated its buy recommendation over the weekend, citing the successful integration of the recently acquired businesses. The key challenge for management now is to convert the 457?million?dollar backlog into actual revenue quickly. If Eric Brock and his team can deliver on the raised guidance, the sheer weight of orders could eventually force short sellers to cover – a scenario that would add further fuel to a stock already up nearly 1,000 percent in a year.

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