Scottish Mortgage's Private-Market Heft Grows as IPO Countdown Begins, Yet the Share Price Struggles to Keep Up
07.06.2026 - 17:54:41 | boerse-global.de
Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust finds itself in an unusual tug-of-war. Its net asset value is surging on the back of two blockbuster private-company flotations, yet the share price keeps slipping. The vehicle lost more than 5% in the past week alone, closing at €17.10, as profit-taking after a strong run collided with the reality that some of the best news may already be priced in.
The dual IPO catalyst comes from two of the fund's largest unlisted holdings. Anthropic, the artificial-intelligence developer in which Scottish Mortgage holds a 2.6% stake, has confidentially filed a prospectus with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. The move triggered an immediate uplift in net asset value. Anthropic closed a $65 billion funding round in May 2026 at a valuation of nearly $1 trillion, while its annualised revenue rocketed from $1 billion to $47 billion in just twelve months. Even more consequential is SpaceX, which Baillie Gifford now values at $1.6 trillion ahead of what is expected to be a June 12 initial public offering at an indicated price of $135 a share — a level that would imply an enterprise value of roughly $1.78 trillion. With SpaceX accounting for 21% of the portfolio, worth around £3.5 billion, the trust's exposure to Elon Musk's space venture is greater than that of any other publicly traded fund globally.
The squeeze between climbing NAV and a retreating share price has drawn contrast between long-term institutional buyers and short-term traders. Mitsubishi UFJ Asset Management lifted its voting rights stake above 3% in the past week, signalling conviction in the trust's strategy. At the start of June, Scottish Mortgage also placed its own shares from treasury: 3.85 million at 1,545 pence and 2.35 million at 1,516.50 pence, both at a premium to net asset value, raising approximately £95 million. Yet the market's mood remains wary. The trust's stock, despite being up 23% year-to-date and 42% over the past six months, now sits 14% below its 52-week high of €19.50, touched on May 25. The 50-day moving average at €16.57 provides nearby support, but the slide has been sharp.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Scottish Mortgage Investment?
Concentration risk is the elephant in the room. A single holding making up more than a fifth of assets leaves little margin for error, and the SpaceX listing is as much a stress test as it is a catalyst. Once insider lock-up periods expire, the pressure on the stock could be considerable, and observers caution that execution risk at such a lofty price level is real. Scottish Mortgage's broader private-market exposure — including ByteDance, Stripe, and Databricks — brings the total allocation to unlisted companies to over 40% of assets. At the annual general meeting in Edinburgh on July 2, shareholders will vote on raising the current 30% cap on private-market investments. The trust has already secured an exception allowing an additional £250 million above that threshold, a move designed to avoid dilution in fast-moving private deals.
The fundamental performance of the portfolio remains strong. For the financial year to March 2026, net asset value rose 27.4%, bringing total assets to £13.82 billion. Over a decade, the NAV total return stands at 435%, dwarfing the benchmark's 234%. Yet the share price discount to NAV persists, reflecting investor caution over the concentration of private holdings and the uncertain reception of the SpaceX IPO. On June 11, the trust goes ex-dividend with a payout of 2.97 pence per share, followed the next day by the SpaceX listing that will either validate Baillie Gifford's bullish revaluation or raise fresh questions about the trust's private-valuation methodology.
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