Silver Hangs on $76 as Solar Thrifting Collides with Battery Boom and Fed Uncertainty

Silver is trading at a crossroads, caught between a deepening supply deficit and a hawkish macro backdrop that keeps a lid on prices. The white metal changed hands at $75.92 per ounce at the close of last week, up 1.35% on the day and roughly 6% higher on the month. Yet it remains more than 35% below its January peak of $116.89, and the 50-day moving average at $76.09 continues to cap gains. The tension between robust industrial demand and a strong dollar—amplified by elevated bond yields—defines the current market.

Six Years of Structural Shortage

The World Silver Survey projects a sixth consecutive year of supply shortfall, with a deficit of 46.3 million ounces expected in 2025. That deficit is the bedrock of the bull case, driven by sustained consumption from solar panel manufacturing, energy storage, and high-tech applications. However, the primary article notes that the photovoltaic sector is increasingly turning to “thrifting” — reducing silver content per cell. Metal Focus forecasts a drop in solar-related silver demand from 186.6 million ounces in 2025 to 151 million ounces in 2026. Counterbalancing that, battery technology for electric vehicles consumes up to one kilogram of silver per unit — ten times that of conventional cells — while AI data centers and 5G infrastructure continue to support base demand. COMEX inventories have fallen below 100 million ounces, underscoring the physical market’s tightening condition.

Bank Forecasts Diverge Sharply

The outlook among major institutions could hardly be more divided. Bank of America lifted its year-end target to $85.93 per ounce and maintains a base case of $100. Analyst Michael Widmer even sees an extreme scenario of $309 if the gold-to-silver ratio collapses. In stark contrast, BMO Capital Markets warns that silver is overbought and expects the metal to slide to $60 in the fourth quarter, preferring gold as the asset of choice for the coming year. The clash reflects the fundamental tug-of-war between structural scarcity and macro headwinds.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Silber Preis?

Geopolitical Calm Dampens Volatility

A 60-day renewal of the ceasefire between the US and Iran eased risk premiums late last week. Iran guaranteed free passage through the Strait of Hormuz while the US agreed to relax its port blockade — though President Trump still has to approve. Markets have already begun to price in a reduction in geopolitical tension, and silver lost 0.49% over the past seven days. The annualized volatility of 55% to 57% highlights the metal’s continued sensitivity to sudden shifts in sentiment.

Technicals and Data Flow Ahead

On the charts, resistance sits at $76 — straddling the 50-day moving average — with a break higher potentially opening the door to $80. Support lies near $73, ahead of the psychologically important $70 level. The RSI stands at 58.9, and a negative divergence on oscillators suggests consolidation before the next directional move.

The week ahead is packed with macro catalysts. ISM manufacturing data on June 1, JOLTS job openings on June 2, and services PMI on June 3 will precede the main event: the May nonfarm payrolls report on June 5. These readings will shape expectations for the Federal Reserve’s policy path, which in turn determines the dollar’s strength. A weaker dollar tends to fuel commodity prices, while a stronger one keeps silver under pressure. For now, the metal is glued to $76, awaiting a trigger.

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