Silver’s Brutal Weekly Sell-Off Deepens as US Jobs Blowup Rewrites the Rate-Cut Playbook

A stunningly strong US payrolls report has thrown a wrecking ball into precious metals markets, with silver bearing the brunt of the repricing. The labour market data for May showed the economy added 172,000 jobs outside agriculture — more than double the 85,000 forecast — while hourly earnings held at 3.4% year-on-year and the unemployment rate stayed glued at 4.3%. The numbers were enough to extinguish lingering hopes for an early rate cut, pushing the market to price in a 25-basis-point hike by December and sending the yield-sensitive metal into a tailspin.

The price damage was immediate and severe, though reports varied on the exact scale. One widely tracked close on Friday put silver at $67.96 per ounce, representing a weekly loss of nearly 11% and a 44% plunge from the January high of $121.78. Another assessment recorded a close of $74.12, a more modest 2% weekly decline but still a gap of some 40% from the 52-week peak. The metal’s 50-day moving average now sits at $76.37 — a level that, from the lower close, stands more than 11% above the spot price, underscoring the technical damage. The relative strength index has fallen to 35, entering territory that often suggests oversold conditions, but traders caution that no clear buy signal has yet flashed.

Beyond the macro shock, the industrial demand side of the equation is also cracking. China’s solar buildout — a key driver of silver consumption in recent years — is running below last year’s pace, according to one analysis. That finding is echoed in the Silver Institute’s latest projections, which forecast that silver demand from the photovoltaic sector will drop from 5,804 tonnes to 4,698 tonnes this year, as efficiency gains and material substitution reduce the amount of the metal needed per panel. This softness in renewable-energy fabrication coincides with a broader slowdown that is testing silver’s reputation as the industrial metal of the energy transition. Investment demand will have to shoulder more of the load if prices are to hold steady, but the current macro environment is making that a tall order.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Silber Preis?

Geopolitical crosscurrents have so far provided little counterweight. Reports of exploratory US-Iran talks have fuelled hopes of easing tensions in the Middle East, but Hezbollah’s rejection of a ceasefire proposal and the Iranian foreign minister’s downbeat assessment of progress have kept risk premiums alive. Those uncertainties feed into inflation expectations, adding another layer of complexity for central banks and further clouding the outlook for zero-yield assets like silver.

Yet the picture is not uniformly bleak. The silver market has been running a structural supply deficit since 2021, and the Silver Institute expects the sixth consecutive shortfall in 2026, with total supply dipping slightly to around 33,100 tonnes. Commerzbank analysts forecast that the metal could recover to $80 per ounce by the end of next year, underpinned by tightening above-ground stocks and the metal’s expanding role in electronics, digitalisation, and solar power. That longer-term support, however, remains a distant promise against the immediate headwinds.

For now, the market’s gaze is fixed firmly on the Fed. Strong economic data continue to push bond yields higher and the dollar firmer, sapping appetite for assets that offer no coupon. With the probability of a December rate move climbing, silver is likely to stay at the mercy of every upcoming US data release. The direction of travel will be dictated by the greenback and the bond market until either the jobs engine stalls or the supply deficit begins to bite hard enough to trump the macro pressure.

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