SpaceX IPO Offers Scottish Mortgage a Potential Lifeline as Private Equity Headwinds Deepen
09.06.2026 - 16:47:18 | boerse-global.de
The global private equity market was supposed to be staging a comeback in the first half of 2026. Instead, three back-to-back shocks have derailed the recovery, and few portfolios feel the pain as acutely as the Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust. With more than 40% of its assets parked in unquoted growth companies, the Bain & Company half-year report released this week makes for sobering reading.
Bain identifies a trifecta of trouble: a valuation crisis in the software sector sparked by the rapid re-rating of AI-driven businesses, mounting redemption pressure in the private credit market, and the outbreak of war in Iran, which has sent oil prices sharply higher. The value of technology-sector dealmaking collapsed by 70% from the fourth quarter of 2025 to the first quarter of this year, while software valuations inside private-equity portfolios have fallen by roughly 8%. Bid-ask spreads have widened, investment committees are pulling back. For Scottish Mortgage, these markdowns translate directly into net asset value (NAV) pressure. Its own portfolio is stuffed with private tech names.
The Trust’s share price has felt the chill. It closed the week at €16.98, a drop of nearly 7% in seven days and roughly 13% below the 52-week high of €19.50 touched on 25 May. Yet the stock still sits on an annual gain of more than 22%, a reflection of how sharply the discount to NAV has narrowed after years of aggressive buybacks – over £3 billion worth – and the subsequent shift to issuing new shares at a premium.
SpaceX: The $1.75 Trillion Counterweight
The biggest single bet in the portfolio – and the clearest potential catalyst – is SpaceX. The rocket company is expected to float on 12 June with a valuation of $1.75 trillion. Scottish Mortgage recently revalued its holding, lifting SpaceX’s weight in the fund from 17.9% at the end of April to 21.0% today. That makes it the dominant position, larger than any quoted stock. A successful IPO would turn an illiquid wager into a daily traded holding overnight. The Trust’s other big private names, Anthropic and OpenAI, are also preparing multibillion-dollar market debuts, though no dates have been set.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Scottish Mortgage Investment?
Bain’s report notes that these three companies could provide a powerful positive shock if they deliver on their listing promises. For Scottish Mortgage, SpaceX alone could meaningfully compress the valuation gap between its unquoted assets and the market price. But the timing is delicate: the private equity slowdown means that interim valuations on other portfolio companies are under pressure, and the NAV itself may come under fire before the IPO fireworks begin.
AGM Showdown and a 43-Year Dividend Streak
Shareholders have two key votes to watch. On 11 June the stock goes ex-dividend, paying 2.97 pence for the quarter. The full-year payout of 4.57 pence represents a 4.3% increase and extends a 43-year run of consecutive dividend hikes – a record that management is keen to protect.
The more consequential event is the annual general meeting on 2 July in Edinburgh. The board wants to raise the cap on unquoted holdings from the current 30% of the portfolio. That limit is already being tested: in April the Trust secured a temporary waiver allowing an additional £250 million of investment beyond the threshold. A permanent increase would formalise the strategy of doubling down on private markets, even as Bain warns that the environment remains hostile. Simultaneously, shareholders will vote on a new share buyback programme, which would only be triggered if the share price falls below NAV – a safety net that acknowledges the risk that the premium could evaporate.
Long-Term Track Record Stands Firm
Despite the near-term noise, the case for patient capital remains robust. Over the ten years through March 2026, the Trust’s NAV has soared 435%, comfortably outpacing the FTSE All-World’s 234% total return. In the most recent fiscal year to March, NAV rose 27.4% and the share price delivered a total return of 26.8%.
The question is whether that discipline can survive a period when the private market liquidity faucet has been turned off. The SpaceX IPO on 12 June will be the first big test. If it succeeds, it could unlock a wave of positive sentiment; if it stumbles, the Trust’s 21% weighting will become a very heavy anchor. The AGM vote a few weeks later will tell investors whether Scottish Mortgage intends to pile on more risk or step back.
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