State Backing, Strategic Pacts, Analyst Upgrade: None of It Stems ITM Power’s 27% Weekly Slide

The week just ended at ITM Power delivers a masterclass in the disconnect between corporate progress and market sentiment. The Sheffield-based hydrogen specialist unveiled a £40 million state investment from Great British Energy, announced a strategic partnership with Protium Green Solutions, and received a bullish analyst upgrade — yet its shares still lost more than a quarter of their value in five trading sessions.

On Friday, the stock closed at €1.68, down 14.45% on the day alone. The weekly loss of 26.75% leaves the company trading roughly 35% below the May high of €2.58. That peak had been reached after a rally that more than tripled the price from its 52-week low of €0.65 in February. Such a rapid re-rating almost inevitably invites a correction, and the past seven days have delivered one with interest.

The selling pressure comes despite a string of concrete operational achievements. Great British Energy, the state-owned energy company, has taken a 10.4% stake in ITM Power by investing £40 million. The cash injection has already allowed management to raise its year-end liquidity forecast to as much as £215 million. That figures alongside a new collaboration with Protium Green Solutions to develop, operate and finance industrial green hydrogen plants in the UK. The first project, Cromarty in Scotland, features a 15 MW electrolyser that will produce around seven tonnes of green hydrogen per day once at full load. A final investment decision is scheduled for December 2026.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying ITM Power?

The company is also advancing its next-generation platform. The Chronos electrolyser modules deliver 2.5 MW each, cut capital costs by 40% and halve the physical footprint of earlier designs. These units are destined for a new automated production line in Sheffield, which depends on a £46.5 million state grant currently under review by the UK competition authority. Meanwhile, the market is watching the HAR2 hydrogen allocation round, where ITM is already listed as a preferred supplier for two projects. The final contracts rest with developers, but a positive outcome could unlock substantial order flows.

Financially, the picture is mixed but improving. Revenue in the current fiscal year is expected to reach up to £43 million, and the order book stands at £152 million, with 71% of that backlog considered profitable. Even so, the company continues to burn cash, with an estimated annual loss of up to £29 million. Morgan Stanley recently upgraded the stock to “Overweight”, projecting an operational break-even in 2028. To get there, ITM will need to secure roughly 200 MW in new orders — a tall but not impossible hurdle.

Technically, the stock now sits just above its 50-day moving average of €1.56, a level that represents critical near-term support. A break below that would materially worsen the short-term chart structure. The relative strength index has fallen to 42.3, indicating that selling pressure has subsided from the overbought extremes seen during the rally. Yet the annualised 30-day volatility of over 100% leaves no doubt: this remains a name for investors with strong nerves.

The market appears to be telling the board that strategic agreements and state equity stakes are no longer enough. After a six-month run-up that more than tripled the share price, investors now demand hard commercial proof. That proof could come in December with the Cromarty investment decision, or on 15 September when the company reports its full-year results. Until then, the disconnect between what ITM Power is doing and how its stock is behaving will likely persist.

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ITM Power Stock: New Analysis - 6 June

Fresh ITM Power information released. What's the impact for investors? Our latest independent report examines recent figures and market trends.

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