XPeng's June Hurdle Looms Large as GX SUV Orders Offer Glimmer of Hope

The Chinese electric vehicle maker has delivered a modest uptick in May sales, but the real test arrives this month. XPeng needs to shift around 37,000 vehicles in June alone to keep its second-quarter guidance within reach — a target that suddenly looks achievable thanks to its new flagship SUV.

Shares jumped 7.2% to €15.10 on Monday, extending a seven-day gain to 9.26%, though the stock still sits 13.5% below its January level. The bounce reflects growing optimism that the GX, which became orderable on May 20, can inject much-needed momentum into a sales trajectory that has sagged for five consecutive months.

The numbers game

May saw XPeng hand over 32,158 vehicles to customers, a 4% improvement from April but another year-on-year decline. Cumulative deliveries for the first five months reached 125,851 units, almost 23% lower than the same period in 2025. That anaemic start puts enormous pressure on the final month of the quarter.

After April and May, XPeng stands at roughly 63,000 deliveries for Q2. Management’s forecast calls for 100,000 to 106,000 vehicles in the period, implying a June surge to somewhere between 37,000 and 43,000 units. Revenue guidance of 19.6 billion to 20.8 billion yuan (roughly $2.7 billion to $2.9 billion) hinges on that ramp-up.

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The first quarter showed why volume matters so much. XPeng delivered 62,682 cars in Q1, down from 94,008 a year earlier, and revenue fell 17.6% to 13 billion yuan. The net loss attributable to ordinary shareholders ballooned to 1.78 billion yuan from 0.66 billion in the prior-year quarter — a stark reversal from the 0.38 billion yuan profit the company booked in the final three months of 2025.

The GX factor

The GX SUV has already demonstrated its pulling power. Within 12 hours of orders opening, more than 24,800 binding reservations came in, with the top-tier "Ultra" trim accounting for over 80% of the total. Priced at an introductory 269,800 yuan (around $40,000), the vehicle targets affluent family buyers and is set to begin series deliveries in June.

That makes this month the first full period of customer handovers for the GX, which serves as the brand’s technology flagship. Deutsche Bank analysts estimate total May orders for all XPeng models reached roughly 50,000 units, suggesting a healthy pipeline heading into summer.

The vehicle sits at the premium end of XPeng’s line-up, while the Mona sub-brand provides breadth. The Mona M03 has been China’s best-selling pure electric A-class sedan for 19 consecutive months, with more than 85% of buyers opting for the MAX or Ultra SE versions. That mix of volume and margin — the first-quarter gross margin improved five percentage points year-on-year to 20.6% — gives XPeng better operating leverage even as losses widen.

Beyond the showroom

XPeng is also building revenue streams outside traditional car sales. Starting this quarter, it is supplying the Turing SoC — its in-house autonomous driving chip — to Volkswagen in increasing volumes, creating a technology and licensing income line.

On the self-driving front, the company has begun mass production of a factory-installed Level-4 robotaxi system, claiming a first among Chinese automakers. The ramp-up of this business remains a longer-term story, but it reinforces XPeng’s positioning as a technology-driven EV maker rather than a pure manufacturer.

Internationally, the company wants to double last year’s overseas deliveries of 45,008 vehicles. It now operates in 60 markets outside China and aims to push that number higher, though the complexity of scaling sales and service networks is a mounting challenge.

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Ambitious full-year target

XPeng’s 2026 delivery forecast of 550,000 to 600,000 vehicles would represent growth of 28% to 40% from the 429,445 units sold last year. After five months, however, it has delivered just over 125,000 cars. The second half of the year will need to deliver a significant acceleration quarter after quarter.

The company also highlighted the environmental impact of its fleet: EVs delivered from January through May are estimated to save more than 2 million tonnes of greenhouse gases, equivalent to the carbon absorption of 33.16 million young trees over a decade.

What to watch

The next milestone is June 26, when XPeng holds its annual general meeting in Guangzhou. Shareholders will vote on the re-election of three independent directors, the reappointment of PwC as auditor (with estimated audit fees of 13.2 million yuan), and mandates for up to 20% equity issuance and up to 10% share buybacks.

For now, all eyes are on the June delivery number. If XPeng can push through the 37,000 mark, the lower end of its Q2 forecast stays within reach. A miss would cast a long shadow over the full-year ambition before the second half even begins.

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